Posted: 10:24 a.m. Monday, Sept. 23, 2013
By Matt Mills
Looking at the advanced stats from this week's game
So this week we are going to try something new. I am a proponent of the "football analytics" movement and would like to bring some of those advanced stats to you guys. I'll start off with an advanced version of the typical box score you would find on ESPN. The box score tells you the total yards gained by each team, how each team did running the ball, how they did passing the ball, tells you about penalties and turnovers, and the time of possession. All interesting information. But I think we can do better. Here is a version of the Advanced Box Score that Bill C has used in the past.
|Passing Downs||Quarter Performance|
|Num Plays||18||18||Yards Per Play (# of plays)||Success Rate||Yards Per Play||Success Rate|
|Success Rate||50%||28%||30%||Q1||7.21 (14)||43%||6.09 (22)||45%|
|Avg Yards||6.78||4.38||5.72||Q2||7.09 (23)||57%||2.44 (16)||13%|
|Standard Downs||Q3||4.94 (18)||56%||3.4 (15)||40%|
|GT||Duke||Natl Average||Q4||5.52 (21)||57%||3.33 (9)||44%|
|Num Plays||58||44||Down Performance|
|Avg Yards||5.98||3.97||5.65||Yards Per Play||Success Rate||Yards Per Play||Success Rate|
|Avg Yards||7.81||3.63||6.47||Drive Performance|
|SD/PD Sack Rate||0% / 0%||2.3% / 5.6%||1.8% / 4.2%||Num of Possesions||Avg Start Spot||Explosive Drive %||Methodical Drive %|
|Num Plays||60||32||% of Possible Yards Gained||GT: 61%||Duke: 28%|
|Success Rate||55%||38%||43%||Georgia Tech Hidden Yards||73.7|
|Avg Yards||5.73||4.53||4.95||Turnovers||GT: 1||Duke: 0|
I'll go through this box score item by item to explain everything.
So what are some advantages of this box score over the traditional one? Well, it tells you how each offense did in each category. Was their success gained from passing or running? Did a team have a field position advantage or did they drive the ball well? Here are some of my observations from this breakdown over a traditional box score.
There are obviously some things that this box score misses (I will try and add a special teams category and a penalty breakdown in the future) but I think it does a great job explaining what happened in the game. And the best part? This isn't even as good as it can be. Average yards per play is a good measure of an offense, but not the best. Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt takes into account touchdown plays and turnovers. For instance GT's average yards per pass was 6.8, but our AdjNYA takes into account the four touchdowns Vad threw (with a 20 yard "bonus") and the one pick (with a 45 yard penalty) to give the offense an AdjNYA of 10.1 yards per play. The national average AdjNYA is only 5.76 yards per pass, so our passing offense KILLED IT this week. And even beyond that, Bill C's Equivalent Points assigns a point value to each yard line to get a better sense of the overall worth of an offensive play. I will be doing these for each conference game and would like to improve it and introduce new things as the season goes on, but I wanted to get some feedback as well. So, what do you guys think? Too much information? Not enough? Anything else you would like to see? Let me know in the comments.