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Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider

Posted: 10:13 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008

Cramming For Finals 

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By Jamie Dupree

Most of my work this week is behind the scenes stuff, as I try to jam as much information into the ole brain for Election Night coverage of the 2008 campaign.  And as I crunch the numbers in Congress, it could be an ugly night for the GOP.

Just as the Republicans seemed to get all of the breaks in 2002 and 2004, it may be that Democrats are about to get a piece of that luck in 2008.

The Dems are poised to pick up a good chunk of seats in the both the House and Senate, and maybe make some history along the way as well.

Last year the Democrats picked up 31 seats in the House.  If they were to duplicate that in 2008, that would be the biggest pickup from two straight election wins since the Dems grabbed back 62 seats combined in the 1972 and 1974 elections.

On the Senate side, with Democratic gains estimated this year at a minimum of 7 seats and maybe more, that will give the Dems their biggest two election gains since the 1956 and 1958 elections.

You can see why we are talking about history here so much.  And so much will depend on how well Barack Obama does at the polls.

History shows that Democrats can win the Presidency and not do very well at all in the race for Congress.  Democrats lost seats in the House when John Kennedy won in 1960.

They only gained one seat in the House when Jimmy Carter won in 1976.

They lost a net of one seat in the House from Bill Clinton's two election victories.

A narrow Obama win or loss will still mean wins for Democrats in Congress.   But a win by 5-7 points or even more, will bring about another shakeout for the Dems.

The biggest two year haul of seats in the last 100 years was in 1930 and 1932 for the Dems, when they picked up 149 seats from the GOP, and held their largest majority ever, with 313 seats in the House.

Yep, I got stats coming out of my ears.

 
 
 
 

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