Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid has set the first test vote on health care reform for Saturday night at 8pm EST, as we'll see then if Democrats have the 60 votes they need to move on to consideration of their health bill.

Reid on Thursday was not claiming that he had 60 votes as yet, as all eyes focused mainly on Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) as the final holdouts.

There are few in the press gallery who believe Landrieu will vote no.  As I have written before, she is seen as someone who makes a lot of noise, but votes with the party after getting a few goodies.

Nelson is a bit tougher to gauge.  He definitely has problems with a good chunk of this bill, but he has also left himself room to vote for debate to proceed, but against the bill later on - even threatening to join a filibuster like Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has done.

Lincoln is the wild card.  She voted against the bill that made it through the Senate Finance Committee, and is involved in a very difficult re-election race.

A new poll in Arkansas shows her with a narrow lead over one of her GOP challengers.  But after respondents are asked if they would vote for her if she votes for the Obama health care bill, she goes from a +2 to minus-12.

That's a 14 point negative swing.

On one hand, that's pretty overwhelming.  On the other hand, think of the power you might have in this situation.

You are the 60th vote to get the debate started - and you are certainly not assuring your leaders that you will even vote for the bill.

But could you still force some concessions now for being the 60th vote to begin debate?

Toss out the public option?  Cut this or that?  Add in a few things?

We'll see what happens as the Senate works into the weekend.

One last thing.  Remember the threat by Sen. Tom Coburn to have the whole health bill read on the floor by the reading clerks?

He caved on that.

Which means Senators will go home for Thanksgiving on Sunday morning.