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Posted: 8:29 p.m. Monday, Aug. 16, 2010
By Jamie Dupree
Last Friday's blog about term limits spurred a lot of discussion and a lot of comments, so I thought I would go back even further to check on turnover in the Congress without term limits.
"Jamie, the problem isn't the percentage that are turning over. The problem is the handful of career politicians that have been there for 20-30-40 years," said one of my blog readers.
Why not? Let's hit the rewind button back to the 101st Congress, with lawmakers elected in 1988 and sworn into office in January of 1989, and see how many of them are still around in the House and Senate.
Of the 100 Senators in the Senate in January of 1989, how many are still serving today?
Bzzzzt.
The answer is 23. Most of you would know names like Kerry, McCain and Specter. Not all of you would know names like Conrad, Kohl and Bond.
Next, we go down the hall to the House. How many of the 435 members of the House in January of 1989 are still serving in the House today?
Bzzzzt.
The answer may surprise you. Just 52.
That's only 12% of the House from the 1988 elections.
I recently did a similar check on House members who were serving in 1959 and whether they were still there in 1980, and the total there was about 9% of the original 1959 Congress.
"Your study focuses on the wrong statistic," wrote Mike. "Ask this question. In the same period you surveyed, how many incumbents who ran for office were reelected."
That answer is pretty much the same kind of number, as about 94% of incumbents have been getting re-elected since 1988.
That number indicates very little change in the Congress. But think about this.
Even though an average of 94% of incumbents have been re-elected in the House every two years since 1988, the actual turnover has left only 12% of the original 435 members who were in the House in that same year.
How about one more set of statistics, going back another 10 years. So, these would be lamwakers who have been serving for just over 30 years, those who were in the House since the elections of 1978.
The Senate had 23 Senators serving over 20 years - go back thirty years - and there are only seven.
The House had 52 members serving over 20 years - go back thirty years - and there are only 18.
Which lawmakers were serving in 1979 and are in the House today?
Rep. Don Young (R-AK), Rep. George Miller (D-CA), Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA), Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA), Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA), Rep. C.W. "Bill" Young (R-FL), Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), Rep. John Conyers (D-MI), Rep. Dale Kildee (D-MI), Rep. John Dingell (D-MI), Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN), Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), Rep. Sam Hall (R-TX), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA), Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) and Rep. David Obey (D-WI).
In the Senate, serving in 1979 and serving now: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT).
Also, there are seven Senators who were in the House in 1979, and are still serving today in the Senate: Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-HI), Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD).
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