I predicted for weeks that Oxendine would finish 3rd at best.  And he came in fourth.  It's time for Eric Johnson to get behind a primary candidate. But there is lot's more to come.  Here's what Randy had to say about it:

Former Governor Roy Barnes had an impressive showing with over 65% of Democratic votes.  Winning any contested primary is impressive.  Winning a contested primary over six other candidates including current Attorney General Thurbert Baker, former Secretary of State David Poythress, and current Georgia House Minority Leader Dubose Porter is very impressive.  The margin of his win means that he not only won African American voters; it means he won them decisively.

The Republican gubernatorial primary was a topsy-turvy affair.  Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine was the heavy favorite until just weeks (some say days) before the primary.  He led in the polls and in fundraising.  But once his collapse started, he could not stop it.  In the end, he received just 17% of GOP Primary votes.  Politics is a strange and tricky business where things can change quickly.

Former Senate President Pro Tem Eric Johnson surged late and mightily.  Coming from virtually nowhere (with polls consistently showing him as "not a factor"), Johnson surged to over 20% of Republican voters.  Just a few more days, and no one can predict what would have happened.  He is proof of just how strong the statewide network of social conservatives is and how much of an impact it can have.

Yet, the story lines went to former Secretary of State Karen Handel and former Congressman Nathan Deal who collectively garnered over half the vote in the Republican Primary.  Both deployed some political heavyweights to move numbers in their favor.

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Handel, building late momentum in the GOP Primary contest.  Then, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came to Georgia to endorse and support Deal.  Their collective impact was notable.

Now, the focus turns to the August 10, 2010 GOP Primary Runoff.  Again, voter turnout will be the story.  Some part of this is based on the nature of primary runoffs.  (Voters who cast their ballots in the Democratic Primary are ineligible to vote in the GOP Primary Runoff.)  If just the GOP Primary voters on July 20, 2010 return on August 10, 2010, then the turnout would be only around 12%.  More likely, the number will dwindle to well below 10%.

Both candidates will now work to reposition themselves in connection with voters who will actually show up on August 10, 2010.  Undoubtedly, the Gingrich/Palin (or Palin/Gingrich) undertone will continue to tickle the fancy of 2012 Presidential election watchers and the media.  But, notwithstanding likely visits by one or both, it is unlikely that this is the match-up that will be on the minds of Georgia GOP Primary Runoff voters.  The fact is that there will be many more endorsements to come - some non-Georgians; but many more Georgians - some of significant consequence.

In addition, the Georgia Congressional delegation, leaders in the Georgia General Assembly, right to life groups, various local and state officials, and others will all step up to the plate to announce their support.  If either candidate can establish a steady Georgia drum beat, then the runoff could quickly become a non-event.  Until then, it is anyone's race.

There are some predictable issues that will bubble up as important factors in deciding who actually shows up to vote - like abortion, immigration, gun rights, and taxes.  Voters in these groups tend to show up to vote more than other groups.

There is one issue that now appears off the table.  Recent published polls have taken the issue of "electability" off the table as an issue for runoff voters.  Both candidates do well in a head-to-head match up against Democratic nominee Roy Barnes, with Deal doing a little better.

There are political factors that help one candidate or the other.  Deal probably got the best break with an unexpected runoff in the Ninth Congressional District GOP primary - his home Congressional District.

In the end, however, all roads lead back to the single biggest factor that will determine Georgia's 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee - turnout.  Who can get their voters to the polls on August 10, 2010; or, significantly, who keep the other candidate's voters home.

This is where things can get ugly fast.  Unfortunately, primaries like this often become negative and personal - fast, really fast.  Many times, campaigns never quite recover; and, supporters never do.  To the delight of Georgia Democrats, Georgia's 2010 GOP gubernatorial campaign already shows signs of this kind of division."