The Alvin Greene Effect As Applied in Georgia
J. Randolph Evans
Column No. 1022 (6/25/10)

While Republicans rip each other apart in the 2010 GOP gubernatorial
primary, Georgia Democrats ponder what will happen in their primary on
July 20, 2010.  With seven candidates, Democratic partisans openly worry
about the mathematics of a seven person primary with a projected 10-15%
voter turnout.

(Republicans also have seven candidates in their primary.  But
Republicans know their future: a GOP gubernatorial runoff is an absolute
certainty.)

For Georgia Democrats, two very different political futures could lay
ahead - one with a clear nominee coming out of the Democratic Primary
while two Republican heavyweights slug it out in a GOP Primary runoff;
and the other with a Democratic runoff where anything can happen given
the make-up of the Democratic primary voters.  No matter what anyone
says, either could happen at this point.

Recent polling suggests the first option is more likely. For example,
Tom Crawford's Georgia Report includes a poll which has former governor
Roy Barnes at 63%.  Candidly, by all accounts, Barnes continues to poll
extremely well.  Certainly, he has an impressive list of endorsements
including prominent African-American leaders, a sizable political war
chest that keeps getting bigger, and a dominant political machine from
his years as governor.

Yet, Governor Barnes has been acting like anything other than a
political frontrunner with big leads in the polls. Instead, he has been
running television advertisements, attending campaign events, and
calling in political IOUs like there is no tomorrow.  Here is why.

First, Governor Barnes remembers well the 2002 election where he held a
huge lead with lots of money and a dominant political machine.  He lost.
He will not make that mistake again.

Second, there is the tricky issue of voter turnout.  So far, early
voting suggests anything other than a fired up electorate in the
primary.  Some part of this scant early voting turnout comes from the
topsy-turvy nature of politics this year.  It seems that every day
another shoe drops and there is no shortage of shoes.  As a result,
voting early could mean a vote cast that becomes a mistake by election
day.

But, if the voter turnout stays low, then anything really can happen on
Primary election day.  One county with a hotly contested sheriff's race,
or one state senatorial district with a multitude of candidates could
easily skew the entire Primary election results. One late surge,
unexpected development, or sudden resonating message could be the
difference.

Then, there is the "Alvin Greene" effect.  So, what is the "Alvin
Greene" effect?  In South Carolina, a candidate with no money, no
website, no staff, no yard signs, no bumper stickers, no mailings, no
television, and no radio won the Democratic Senatorial primary over a
well established Democratic candidate (a former state judge and
Charleston legislator).  The winner was Alvin Greene.  Before his win,
Alvin Greene truly was a complete unknown.  As it turned out, he is a
32-year old unemployed veteran living with his father in rural Manning,
South Carolina and facing felony obscenity charges.  Yet, he won 58% of
the vote in the South Carolina Democratic primary.  He received 100,362
votes.

How did Alvin Greene win over a candidate backed by the Democratic
leadership of South Carolina?  Consider the explanation Democratic
Representative Todd Rutherford of Columbia, South Carolina for his vote
for Alvin Greene according to the Wall Street Journal (June 12-13,
2010):

               "Mr. Rutherford, who is black, said several of his
family members voted for Mr. Greene because they weren't familiar with
either candidate and they thought Mr. Greene had the more
African-American name."

If this is true, the ramifications in the Democratic Primary in Georgia
are humongous.  After all, one of Governor Barnes's opponents in the
Democratic primary is Attorney General Thurbert Baker.  Unlike Alvin
Greene (a political unknown), Attorney General Thurbert Baker is the
highest elected Democrat in Georgia and is a prominent African-American
leader.

In South Carolina, African-Americans comprise over one quarter of all
registered voters.  According to the Wall Street Journal, Democratic
leaders believe that as many as 70% of the voters in the 2010 Democratic
primary were African-American.  The numbers in Georgia are more
pronounced.

In Georgia, almost 40% of registered voters are African-American.  Based
on current voter turnout projections, African-Americans could account
for as much as 80% of the Democratic primary in Georgia.  If the
Rutherford explanation of the Alvin Greene effect is applied with low
voter turnout, Georgia could be in for a real surprise on Primary
election night.

On the other hand, it could just mean another run-off.  After all, to
win without a runoff, former Governor Roy Barnes has to win virtually
all (99%) of the non-African-American vote and 20-25% (one out of four)
of the African-American vote.  Strange things are happening this year.

Reprinted with the permission of Randy Evans.