GOP Vice Presidential Calculus

By J. Randolph Evans   Column No. 1115 (4/6/12)

GOP insiders have turned their attention to who might be a good Vice Presidential candidate.  The movie "Game Change" (about the selection of Governor Sarah Palin by Senator John McCain) has highlighted the kinds of things that Presidential nominees and their campaign teams consider when making one of the most important decisions in their political career.  Selecting a running mate involves a personal and political calculus that is different from anything that a nominee will have ever undertaken.

Success in the Presidential election could be determined by the nominee's choice for Vice President.  President Ronald Reagan saw it as an opportunity to reunite the Republican Party after a contentious nomination process.  He picked Vice President George H.W. Bush, his principal primary opponent.  It worked.  He defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980.

President Bill Clinton picked a running mate based on compatibility.  Hence, even though President Clinton was from Arkansas, he picked Tennessee Senator Al Gore who was also from the South.  It worked.  He defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush.

Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama picked party loyalists.  President Bush selected Dick Cheney, a former Congressman and Secretary of Defense.  He was a safe pick.  He had the knowledge of a Washington insider and the confidence of Republican Party operatives.  President Bush won election in 2000 and reelection in 2004.

Similarly, President Barack Obama picked then Senator Joe Biden, a sitting United States Senator who had served Delaware since 1973.  He was a safe pick.  He too had the knowledge of a Washington insider and the confidence of Democrat Party loyalists.  President Obama won in 2008.

Neither Vice President Cheney nor Vice President Biden brought much to the table in terms of their home states.  Biden's home state of Delaware was a safe state for President Obama in 2008 and Cheney's home state of Wyoming was a safe state for President Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Yet, Electoral College mathematics often plays a significant role in the selection of a Vice President.  President George H.W. Bush picked then Indiana Senator Dan Quayle in order to shore up his ability to win an important Midwestern state.  It worked in 1988.

Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry picked North Carolina Senator John Edwards.  It did not work out so well.  Kerry lost in 2004 and the Democratic ticket lost Edwards' home state of North Carolina by 12.4%.

Sometimes, Presidential nominees decide to go outside of the box and go for the homerun pick.  Democratic nominee Walter Mondale picked New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro in 1984.  Republican nominee Bob Dole picked former NFL quarterback and New York Congressman Jack Kemp in 1996.   And, Republican nominee John McCain picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in 2008.  None worked out, although everyone concedes that Governor Palin was definitely a game-changer for McCain's flagging campaign.

The 2012 GOP Vice Presidential selection will soon be before us.  If the goal is Republican unity, the GOP nominee could follow the Reagan model and pick one of the other candidates who ran for the nomination.  Largely, they are known quantities at this point, so there should be no 'surprises.'

If the goal is to maximize the GOP ticket's chances in the battleground states, the calculus is different.  The battleground states have some strong talent and effective vote-getters.  Florida has Senator Marco Rubio (who has the added benefit of being Latino - a group that will be critical to a General Election win).  Nevada, New Mexico, and Indiana all have strong Republican governors.  Winning any of these states that Barack Obama won in 2008 would be a big step toward a General Election win.

The South will be critical for the GOP nominee.  One school of thought is to pick a southern governor to conserve resources during the fall campaign in the South.  Many of the southern Republican governors would fit the bill.  If the goal was to pick a southern governor who had also run for the presidency, and whom conservatives love - it would be Texas Governor Rick Perry.  For a new, young face, it would be Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.  As a very accomplished (now in his second term as Governor at age 40) son of immigrant parents, he could reinvigorate "the American Dream," which is largely (and sadly) lost on America's youth.

Then, there is the possibility of another game-changer pick.  Here, look for the nominee to consider seriously a woman as his running mate.  So far, the Obama campaign has worked hard to target women voters as part of its General Election strategy.  One of the most effective counters would be for Republicans to actually put another woman on the ticket.  Who knows - could the third time be the charm with New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez as both the first woman and Latina Vice President?

 (Used with Permission)